Trumping Trade Orthodoxy

Fri, 3 February, 2017 9:00am

President Trump has promised a markedly new direction in U.S. trade policy through tweets, appointments, and executive orders. Regardless of these first steps and initial press reports, substantial questions remain about whether some of the actions in fact can be adopted within existing legislative and constitutional constraints. In other areas, President Trump’s authority to pursue radically different policies likely are well-established.

George Washington's Institute for International Economic Policy is organizing a full day conference on Feb 3, 2017 to examine what President Trump can, and cannot, do on trade policy without new congressional authorization. Participants will hear from panels that will include a team of two leading lawyers and economists with substantial first-hand trade policy experience. This conference will provide audience members with important perspectives on the limits of President Trump's emerging trade policy.

If you are unable to attend the conference in person, you can watch it live.

Agenda

8:15 am - 9 am: Registration and Breakfast

9 am - 9:15 am: Opening Remarks and Introduction

Michael Moore, George Washington University

9:15 am - 10:15 am: Trade Remedies

The President has substantial leeway for initiating various trade remedy actions (antidumping, countervailing duty, and safeguards). U.S. trade law practice and procedure may limit the scope of imposing duties under these provisions.

Matt Nolan, Arent Fox LLP
Michael Moore, George Washington University

10:15 am - 11:15 am: China as a 'Currency Manipulator'

The U.S. Treasury may determine that a country manipulates its currency but only under certain statutory conditions. Would China qualify under those provisions? What consequences might it face if China is declared a “currency manipulator”?

Steve Charnovitz, The George Washington University Law School
Jay Shambaugh, George Washington University

11:15 am - 11:30 am: Coffee Break

11:30 am - 12:30 pm: Renegotiating/Leaving Existing Trade Agreements

U.S. trade agreements such as NAFTA allow for either Party to announce a withdrawal with six months’ notice. Can President Trump do so without congressional approval? What would be the impact on U.S. trade and investment flows if he were to follow through with such threats?

Joel Trachtman, Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy
Thomas Prusa, Rutgers University

12:30 pm - 1:30 pm: Lunch

1:30 pm - 2:30 pm: Tax Policy, Investment Agreements, & Foreign Direct Investment

President Trump has suggested imposing 35 percent tariffs on individual U.S. firms that offshore manufacturing jobs. Can the Administration single out individual companies in this way? How might such threats increase uncertainty on inward and outward U.S. foreign investment?

Michael Smart, Rock Creek Global Advisors
Maggie Chen, George Washington University

2:45 pm - 3:45 pm: Possible WTO Disputes

An aggressive new U.S. trade policy may result in formal disputes with WTO members. What are the most likely cases that might arise? How might the U.S. economy be affected if the WTO rules in favor of those who contest new U.S. approaches in trade policy?

James Mendenhall, Sidley Austin LLP
Chad Bown, Peterson Institute for International Economics

3:45 pm - 4 pm: Concluding Remarks